تخمین نرخ بروز استاندارد شده سنی سرطان ریه در ایران برای سال‌های 2014 و 2030

Introduction: lung cancer is the most deadly and the most expensive cancer all around the world. Limited studies have been conducted in the survey of incidence rate for lung cancer in IRAN. National report of cancer registry in IRAN (report 2008) indicates that mean value of ASR of lung cancer is 5.23 for men and women (7.09 for men and 3.38 for women). These values are so different from the values of Globocan 2008 report which indicates that mean value of lung cancer ASR for men and women is 23.6 (33.8 for men and 13.5 for women ). The authors of report 2008 in IRAN have declared that the calculated ASR for lung cancers is abnormal and unexpected. Another study has been done in Golestan province and its results have been published in IARC. In this study, the mean ASR of lung cancer has been reported equal to 11.55 (17.5 for men and 5.6 for women). The actual value of lung cancer ASR is so controversial in IRAN in this study we estimated the value of ASR considering the main risk factors and using a linear mathematical model. Materials and methods: a comprehensive study on lung cancer’s statistics was conducted in three countries of America, England, and Turkey in the last 15 years. Statistics were extracted on the number of smokers and the percentage of the elderly (the most important risk factors for lung cancer) and ASR of lung cancer of these countries. Then by interpolating data of the three countries, a model was extracted for estimating the lung cancer of IRAN. Findings: The output of the model (analysis mode1) shows that the rate of lung cancer ASR is equal to 9.7 and 27 in 2014 and 2030 respectively. In another estimate (analysis mode2) given that Turkey is a country neighboring Iran, America and Britain, the two countries have been removed from the calculation and the only Turkish statistics were used for interpolation and approximation of lung cancer ASR. In this mode, ASR of the country was estimate 12 and 33.9 in 2014 and 2030 respectively. Based on the analysis mode1, the number of new lung cancer cases is estimated 8000 and 28890 individuals in 2014 and 2030 respectively. Based on the analysis mode2, the number of new lung cancer cases is estimated 9600 and 36380 individuals in 2014 and 2030 respectively. Discussion and conclusion: The above estimations indicate that the lung cancer will be the most deadly and the most common cancer in the country in close future. Whereas, that smoking does not increase in the coming years, in the case of increasing in smoking, the situation will become more critical and complex. Our study indicates that we will have a serious challenge in our country in close future about lung cancer. To control and manage this problem, lung cancer screening with LDCT is an emergency program that should be planned, tested and implemented.